Forecasted Questions
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +1% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:57PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 01:57PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 2% | +3% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 98% | -3% | +1% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:57PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 01:57PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51% | 55% | -4% | +8% |
| No | 49% | 45% | +4% | -8% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 25, 2024 08:14AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 25, 2024 08:14AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Feb 25, 2024 to Feb 25, 2025 | May 25, 2024 | 8% | -4% | +4% |
| No | 96% | Feb 25, 2024 to Feb 25, 2025 | May 25, 2024 | 92% | +4% | -4% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 25, 2024 08:27AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 25, 2024 08:27AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | 10% | +1% | +1% |
| No | 89% | 90% | -1% | -1% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2024 06:33AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 26, 2024 06:33AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 4% | +3% | -4% |
| No | 93% | 96% | -3% | +4% |