Forecasted Questions
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 14, 2021 01:07PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 14, 2021 01:07PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 2% | 1% | 7% | -6% | -1% |
| Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 17% | 23% | -6% | -2% |
| More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 82% | 33% | +49% | -1% |
| More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 0% | 21% | -21% | +0% |
| More than 8% | 0% | 16% | -16% | +3% |
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 12, 2022 07:54PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 12, 2022 07:54PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 80% | 48% | +32% | +13% |
| Microsoft | 0% | 22% | -22% | +3% |
| Alphabet (Google) | 5% | 13% | -8% | -3% |
| Amazon | 0% | 10% | -10% | -6% |
| Tesla | 0% | 3% | -3% | -3% |
| Meta (Facebook) | 15% | 1% | +14% | -3% |
| Other | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 16, 2022 10:10PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 16, 2022 10:10PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 14% | 40% | 3% | +37% | -2% |
| Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 60% | 12% | +48% | -5% |
| More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 0% | 31% | -31% | -2% |
| More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 0% | 40% | -40% | +8% |
| More than 20% | 0% | 14% | -14% | +1% |
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in China in 2022?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 26, 2022 12:10PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Dec 26, 2022 12:10PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 5% | 4% | 5% | -1% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 5% but less than 7% | 68% | 73% | -5% | +4% |
| More than or equal to 7% | 28% | 22% | +6% | -5% |
Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 09, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 09, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:55PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 01:55PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
As of Feb 28, 2024 01:56PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Jan 28, 2024 to Jul 28, 2024 | Feb 28, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
As of Apr 28, 2024 01:56PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Jan 28, 2024 to Jul 28, 2024 | Apr 28, 2024 | 0% | +1% | -1% |
Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(18 days ago)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 0% | +1% | -1% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
As of Feb 28, 2024 01:57PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:57PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 01:57PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Jan 28, 2024 to Jul 28, 2024 | Feb 28, 2024 | 3% | +1% | -3% |
| No | 96% | Jan 28, 2024 to Jul 28, 2024 | Feb 28, 2024 | 97% | -1% | +3% |
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
As of Feb 28, 2024 01:57PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:57PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 01:57PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | Jan 28, 2024 to Jul 28, 2024 | Feb 28, 2024 | 18% | +12% | +10% |
| No | 70% | Jan 28, 2024 to Jul 28, 2024 | Feb 28, 2024 | 82% | -12% | -10% |