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Andhem2020

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Forecasted Questions

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:55PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 749	0%	0%	+0%	-1%
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive	5%	0%	+5%	-1%
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive	22%	6%	+16%	-12%
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive	62%	94%	-32%	+20%
More than or equal to 3000	11%	0%	+11%	-6%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 499	76%	99%	-23%	+23%
Between 500 and 999, inclusive	22%	1%	+21%	-21%
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive	1%	0%	+1%	-1%
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
More than or equal to 2000	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	46%	95%	-49%	+48%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	46%	4%	+42%	-42%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	4%	0%	+4%	-4%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	3%	0%	+3%	-1%
More than or equal to 200	1%	0%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	8%	9%	-1%	+1%
Su-35 fighter jets	22%	11%	+11%	-4%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	4%	+1%	-2%
No	95%	96%	-1%	+2%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	3%	2%	+1%	+1%
Oman	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
Qatar	4%	2%	+2%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	2%	5%	-3%	+0%
Tunisia	2%	1%	+1%	+0%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	-2%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+2%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	42%	13%	+29%	-22%
No	58%	87%	-29%	+22%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	4%	4%	+0%	+1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	96%	95%	+1%	-1%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	4%	+4%	-1%
No	92%	96%	-4%	+1%