Lowering slightly on the lack of news. As I mentioned in my last forecast, I'm guessing the majority of Chinese military efforts between now and the end of this question will be focused on areas applicable to Taiwan.
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Definitions |


Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
A focus on capabilities related to Taiwan doesn't preclude expansion in Africa, and maybe it will become a priority, particularly if investments in nearby areas are increased.


Why do you think you're right?
Looks like we're on course to hit the middle bin. As time progresses, the range of outcomes is narrowing. The main thing that I think could change this is if there are media campaigns. For example, if we're in a campaign now and it ends abruptly we could end in the second bin. Similarly, if one starts or ramps up, there is still a chance of ending in the highest bin. From what I can gather though, it doesn't appear that the campaign model is happening and it seems there's just a slow and relatively steady stream of cases.
Why might you be wrong?
As I mentioned in my comment, if the campaign model turns out to be correct it could push the answer toward the extremes.

Why do you think you're right?
Time is running out, so it's time to start lowering. I don't see any news to keep me from decreasing.
Why might you be wrong?

Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
We're a long way from 2030 and I don't want to be overconfident.

Why do you think you're right?
Lowering with time. I'll have to consider more carefully how much the clarification changes things. Some of my fellow forecasters updated downward quite a bit, but I'll have to dig into it a little more before updating that much. Meanwhile, it seems like the US may (or still may not?) increase support for Ukraine in the coming months. If the US provides weapons will that take pressure off of the EU? This possibility brings me down an additional percentage point beyond the time only adjustment.
Why might you be wrong?
My main concern now is the impact of the new clarifications which I'll need to look into before my next forecast.

Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
Something completely unexpected could happen. It would probably take re-escalation with Iran AND something else on top of that at this point.

Why do you think you're right?
there's so little time left... I'm going to zero across the board. I probably should have gone to zero a month ago, but better late than never. I haven't seen anything to make me update.
Why might you be wrong?
I really doubt I'm wrong. It would be very unexpected. On the other hand, they would really have the element of surprise going for them.

Why do you think you're right?
It was already unlikely to happen due to the limited time, but @404_NOT_FOUND 's recent comments convinced me that the chances are low enough that I can round them down to zero. Potentially angering the Trump administration is yet another reason why this is unlikely.
Why might you be wrong?
As I've mentioned before, an announcement is a very low bar. If it happens I'll be quite surprised but every now and again a 1/250 chance happens.