JonathanMann

Jonathan Mann
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-0.003

Relative Brier Score

79

Forecasts

22

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 13 37 329 79 337
Comments 1 5 42 6 42
Questions Forecasted 5 10 44 11 46
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 8 79 22 79
 Definitions
New Prediction

Continuing to lower by the day

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New Prediction
JonathanMann
made their 18th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
8% (+0%)
Less than 20
74% (+1%)
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
17% (-1%)
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
1% (+0%)
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
0% (+0%)
More than or equal to 50

minor adjustments due to no new data.

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New Prediction
JonathanMann
made their 17th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
8% (+2%)
Less than 20
73% (-1%)
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
18% (-1%)
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
1% (+0%)
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
0% (+0%)
More than or equal to 50

another day at 19... the main issue driving my uncertainty is that the update cadence still isn't perfectly clear to me.

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New Prediction

Matching the crowd 

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New Prediction

Lowering by the day as time runs out 

Files
New Prediction
JonathanMann
made their 16th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
6% (+3%)
Less than 20
74% (-2%)
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
19% (-1%)
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
1% (+0%)
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
0% (+0%)
More than or equal to 50

Minor adjustments from another day without updates 

Files
New Prediction

There isn't enough time for the situation to change very much.

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New Prediction
JonathanMann
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
6% (-1%)
Less than or equal to 5
90% (+1%)
Between 6 and 7, inclusive
4% (+0%)
More than or equal to 8

Hedging slightly toward the crowd.

Files
New Prediction

lowering by the day, but North Korea is still making noises that make me suspect there will be a nuclear test at some point this year:
https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-kim-jong-un-nuclear-missile-8b92c652009c79751c33cbb49886e920

Files
New Prediction

Lowering daily 

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