minor adjustments due to no new data.
-0.003
Relative Brier Score
79
Forecasts
22
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 13 | 37 | 329 | 79 | 337 |
| Comments | 1 | 5 | 42 | 6 | 42 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 10 | 44 | 11 | 46 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 8 | 79 | 22 | 79 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(+0%)
Less than 20
74%
(+1%)
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
17%
(-1%)
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
1%
(+0%)
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
0%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 50
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(+2%)
Less than 20
73%
(-1%)
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
18%
(-1%)
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
1%
(+0%)
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
0%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 50
another day at 19... the main issue driving my uncertainty is that the update cadence still isn't perfectly clear to me.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
(-2%)
Intel
Matching the crowd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-1%)
Yes
Lowering by the day as time runs out
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(+3%)
Less than 20
74%
(-2%)
Between 20 and 29, inclusive
19%
(-1%)
Between 30 and 39, inclusive
1%
(+0%)
Between 40 and 49, inclusive
0%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 50
Minor adjustments from another day without updates
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
There isn't enough time for the situation to change very much.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-1%)
Less than or equal to 5
90%
(+1%)
Between 6 and 7, inclusive
4%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 8
Hedging slightly toward the crowd.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-2%)
Yes
lowering by the day, but North Korea is still making noises that make me suspect there will be a nuclear test at some point this year:
https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-kim-jong-un-nuclear-missile-8b92c652009c79751c33cbb49886e920
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(-1%)
Yes
Lowering daily
Files
Continuing to lower by the day