Tolga

This is not something that I think the Russian military is or will become capable of over the next few years.

I do not think a 2nd Trump administration would withdraw from NATO, but even if it did, I don't think it would substantially raise the risk in absolute terms.

It seems likely there will be an Israel-Hezbollah war sometime this year, with most of the probability mass by the end of September.

The resolution criteria on this question do not actually require a formal declaration of war, but seem to encapsulate circumstances that a reasonable person would consider to be a war.

Some countries are urging their citizens to leave or not travel to Lebanon due to the risk of war:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/germany-netherlands-urge-citizens-to-leave-lebanon-for-fear-of-war/
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/12-countries-issue-warnings-to-citizens-amid-lebanon--israel

Israel has moved troops near to the border area and is carrying out military exercises simulating a war in Lebanon:
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-moves-troops-near-lebanon-border-amid-military-preparations-for-war/3260081

I think I was maybe a little low on this, but maintaining forecast given the passage of time without new exoplanets

Reducing slightly. The underlying potential causes of war remain the same, but Israel and Iran have shown they are able to avoid escalation if they want to.

Didn't happen.

Maintaining forecast. I think the dominating causes of him ceasing to be Supreme Leader are still his health and age.

The situation in Myanmar continues to worse. That, with the passage of time, causes me to update down a lot.

Going down for passage of time. Haven't seen news that updates me on this.

Maintaining forecast based on previous analysis: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/114321
Nothing that updates me