Looks unlikely judging from the last few years but the peace seems fragile.
-0.0
Relative Brier Score
17
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 17 | 166 | 17 | 166 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 17 | 31 | 17 | 31 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
Yes
Looks like there were no reported deaths at the Brasilia riot
https://www.newsweek.com/brasilia-riots-brazil-lula-bolsonaro-election-donald-trump-capitol-riots-1772210
So it looks unlikely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
86%
Yes
The military have said they'll hold elections by August, so they probably will, though they did go back on their last promise to hold elections.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
93%
Less than 200
7%
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
0%
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
0%
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
0%
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
0%
More than or equal to 1000
Unlikely on this timeline and given the average rate.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
US leading with very little time remaining.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Extremely little chance of this in the next month
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Looks very unlikely on this timeframe, haven't read about preparations being made.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova
1%
(-1%)
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia
0%
(+0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova
99%
(+1%)
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova
Moving lower with the passage of time and lack of recent escalations
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
Moving down to 1% with the passage of time and lack of recent escalations. I don't think they would hit supply chains within NATO members. There is a risk of accidents and escalatory cycles that could lead to this.
Files
Looks very unlikely, given the base rate.