Looks unlikely judging from the last few years but the peace seems fragile.
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Looks like there were no reported deaths at the Brasilia riot
https://www.newsweek.com/brasilia-riots-brazil-lula-bolsonaro-election-donald-trump-capitol-riots-1772210
So it looks unlikely


Unlikely on this timeline and given the average rate.

US leading with very little time remaining.


Looks very unlikely on this timeframe, haven't read about preparations being made.

Moving lower with the passage of time and lack of recent escalations

Moving down to 1% with the passage of time and lack of recent escalations. I don't think they would hit supply chains within NATO members. There is a risk of accidents and escalatory cycles that could lead to this.
Looks very unlikely, given the base rate.