Tolga

His re-election by the parliament seems very unlikely due to the rise of the Move Forward party in the recent elections. The Move Forward party will probably form strong coalition, winning enough support from MPs to elect a different prime minister.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/23/thailands-move-forward-party-allies-agree-on-coalition-platform

Bukele's policies seem to have been very effective in reducing violent crime. Based on the overall trend, and the data from 2023. Looking at the ACLED data, it seems that the first quarter is often the most violent. I think there's a pretty high chance the number from Jun 2023 - Jun 2024 will come in somewhere around 50.

Extremely slim chance of this. Bukele's policies seem to have been very effective, and I don't see how this changes and I don't see any real potential causes of a sudden great increase in violence.

No chance of this this year. Sam Altman has said they won't, and they haven't even begun training. The training process combined with further steps like safety evaluations, even if it were to begin very soon, would likely take us beyond the end of the year.

So far, the war doesn't seem to have seriously threatened his position, and I see a challenge to him from within Russia as very unlikely.

Most of the weight I put here is due to natural expectations of the chances of dying or becoming incapacitated for a man of his age, adjusted upwards slightly because I believe he is in poor health. I think he possibly has cancer, and probably has some other neurological disease such as Parkinson's.