Tolga

Tolga Bilge
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-0.032

Relative Brier Score

57

Forecasts

2

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 5 35 58 57 58
Comments 1 2 10 6 10
Questions Forecasted 5 19 21 20 21
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 2 2 2
 Definitions
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
New Prediction
Tolga
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
20% (+0%)
A coalition government is formed and Yair Lapid becomes Prime Minister
55% (+4%)
A coalition government is formed and Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister
7% (+1%)
A coalition government is formed but neither Lapid nor Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister
18% (-5%)
A coalition government is not formed

Tracking the polls

New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
New Prediction
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
New Prediction

Seems likely, but I'm not as certain as the crowd given the limited number of places.

New Prediction

@Pramila makes the case well for why hes fairly likely to be appointed, still seems uncertain. 

New Prediction

I find @RyanBeck's reasoning useful, and the article linked by @harjanim

New Prediction
Tolga
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
1
10%
2
39%
3
51%
4 or lower

Don't see reasons why we should expect the US goes from 3rd to 1st in one year. Probably the US will continue to fall in the rankings over the next 3 or so years, as some small countries will specialize more in industries that make heavy use of AI skills, while the US has a diverse range of industries.

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