29th
Accuracy Rank

Tolga

Tolga Bilge
About:
Show more

-0.226802

Relative Brier Score

62

Forecasts

15

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 13 192 62 447
Comments 0 0 1 1 16
Questions Forecasted 0 13 54 23 88
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 57 15 77
 Definitions
New Prediction
Tolga
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Estonia
0%
Latvia
0%
Lithuania

This is not something that I think the Russian military is or will become capable of over the next few years.

I do not think a 2nd Trump administration would withdraw from NATO, but even if it did, I don't think it would substantially raise the risk in absolute terms.

Files
New Prediction
Tolga
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
55%
Yes
Jun 30, 2024 to Dec 30, 2024
45%
No
Jun 30, 2024 to Dec 30, 2024

It seems likely there will be an Israel-Hezbollah war sometime this year, with most of the probability mass by the end of September.

The resolution criteria on this question do not actually require a formal declaration of war, but seem to encapsulate circumstances that a reasonable person would consider to be a war.

Some countries are urging their citizens to leave or not travel to Lebanon due to the risk of war:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/germany-netherlands-urge-citizens-to-leave-lebanon-for-fear-of-war/
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/12-countries-issue-warnings-to-citizens-amid-lebanon--israel

Israel has moved troops near to the border area and is carrying out military exercises simulating a war in Lebanon:
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-moves-troops-near-lebanon-border-amid-military-preparations-for-war/3260081

Files
New Prediction

I think I was maybe a little low on this, but maintaining forecast given the passage of time without new exoplanets

Files
New Prediction
Tolga
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8% (-2%)
Yes
Jun 30, 2024 to Jun 30, 2025
92% (+2%)
No
Jun 30, 2024 to Jun 30, 2025

Reducing slightly. The underlying potential causes of war remain the same, but Israel and Iran have shown they are able to avoid escalation if they want to.

Files
New Prediction
Tolga
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Jun 30, 2024 to Dec 30, 2024
Still looks totally out of the question.
Files
New Prediction

Didn't happen.

Files
New Prediction
Tolga
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11% (0%)
Yes
Jun 30, 2024 to Jun 30, 2025
89% (0%)
No
Jun 30, 2024 to Jun 30, 2025

Maintaining forecast. I think the dominating causes of him ceasing to be Supreme Leader are still his health and age.

Files
New Prediction
Tolga
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (-8%)
Yes
96% (+8%)
No

The situation in Myanmar continues to worse. That, with the passage of time, causes me to update down a lot.

Files
New Prediction

Going down for passage of time. Haven't seen news that updates me on this.

Files
New Prediction
Tolga
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
2023 Q2
0% (0%)
2023 Q3
0% (0%)
2023 Q4
0% (0%)
2024 Q1
0% (0%)
2024 Q2

Maintaining forecast based on previous analysis: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/114321
Nothing that updates me

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username