-0.035
Relative Brier Score
74
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 5 | 16 | 223 | 74 | 223 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 13 |
Questions Forecasted | 5 | 15 | 45 | 31 | 45 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 14 |
Definitions |

New Prediction

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Less than or equal to 49
35%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
15%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
5%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
5%
More than or equal to 200

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Yes

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirming previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Yes
Affirming, don't see this happening by August.
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Yes
Affirming, still looks very unlikely, and not much time remaining.
Files
His re-election by the parliament seems very unlikely due to the rise of the Move Forward party in the recent elections. The Move Forward party will probably form strong coalition, winning enough support from MPs to elect a different prime minister.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/23/thailands-move-forward-party-allies-agree-on-coalition-platform