Tolga

Tolga Bilge
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-0.038913

Relative Brier Score

49

Forecasts

15

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 1 19 227 49 434
Comments 0 0 3 1 16
Questions Forecasted 1 18 56 21 86
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 5 65 15 77
 Definitions
New Badge
Tolga
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Tolga
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (+5%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
90% (-5%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
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New Prediction

Hat tip to @ctsats for the observation that the base rate data is unreliable:
https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/122911

Also noting @michal_dubrawski's observations: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/124467
We have 7 potentially habitable exoplanets added this year (it's unclear to me how many were from 2023), and 1 for 2024

Given the problems with the base rate data, I'm updating down, but only slightly since we already have one for this year.

Files
michal_dubrawski
made a comment:
Thanks Tolga! About your question, if my analysis is right, from the 7 planets added to the catalog this year as potentially habitable, 6 are the ones discovered in 2023, and one is from 2015. The one which counts toward 5 needed for a resolution as "yes" was from the late 2023 (publication is from December 7th 2023). 
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Tolga
earned a new badge:

Upvotes Received

New Prediction
Tolga
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
I don't think it's currently even on the table.
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New Prediction

Dysprosium oxide is used in the production of magnets, I don't see demand suddenly increasing on this time-frame. I suppose there is still geopolitical risk, but I give it a low probability given the time on the question and it's unclear why restrictions on the supply would be put in place.

Currently well below $1000/kg, at $255/kg.

Files
New Prediction
Tolga
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
Yes
Mar 31, 2024 to Mar 31, 2025
89%
No
Mar 31, 2024 to Mar 31, 2025

An 84 year old American male has a 9.8% chance of dying in the next year. This + the chance of incapacitation such that one must resign from such a role would be higher.

There are rumors that he has poor health: https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20220925-iran-ayatollah-khamenei-s-health-issues-prompt-fresh-speculation-on-succession
But this is not uncommon for a man of his age, so I would not deviate up much from the actuarial tables. He may also get better healthcare than the average American 84 year old male.

I think the political risk to him in Iran is pretty low.

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New Prediction
Tolga
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2024 to Mar 31, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Mar 31, 2024 to Mar 31, 2025

No out-of-distribution events on this that move me. Underlying factors remain the same. I don't think Iran want a war.

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New Prediction
Tolga
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
12% (-8%)
Yes
88% (+8%)
No

I think I was too high on this, they haven't committed to holding elections by this date, just by the end of 2025, and new reasons can always be found to further postpone.

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New Prediction

Another slight update upwards on this with Microsoft bringing in Mustafa Suleyman - for the same reasoning as I updated upwards with the Mistral partnership: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/121104

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