Tolga

Tolga Bilge

About:

Mathematics student at the University of Bergen

I'm also on GJOpen:
https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/Tolga

[email protected]

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-0.032

Relative Brier Score

57

Forecasts

2

Upvotes

Forecasting Activity

Forecasting Calendar

	Past Week	Past Month	Past Year	This Season	All Time
Forecasts	5	35	58	57	58
Comments	1	2	10	6	10
Questions Forecasted	5	19	21	20	21
Upvotes on Comments By This User	0	0	2	2	2
Definitions

New Prediction

Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?

Tolga made their 3rd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

4% (+1%)

Yes

Temperature is rising

Sep 29, 2022 12:59AM UTC

New Prediction

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?

Tolga made their 6th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

10% (+0%)

Yes

Confirmed previous forecast

Sep 29, 2022 12:46AM UTC

New Prediction

What will be the outcome of the Israeli legislative election on 1 November 2022?

Tolga made their 3rd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

20% (+0%)

A coalition government is formed and Yair Lapid becomes Prime Minister

55% (+4%)

A coalition government is formed and Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister

7% (+1%)

A coalition government is formed but neither Lapid nor Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister

18% (-5%)

A coalition government is not formed

Tracking the polls

Sep 27, 2022 12:56AM UTC

New Prediction

Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating reported by the Levada Center drop below 50% in the next month?

Tolga made their 5th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

4% (+0%)

Yes

Confirmed previous forecast

Sep 25, 2022 03:34AM UTC

New Prediction

Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?

Tolga made their 3rd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

1% (-3%)

Yes

@TDHesslink's articles

Sep 25, 2022 03:31AM UTC

New Prediction

Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?

Tolga made their 3rd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

80% (+0%)

Yes

Confirmed previous forecast

Sep 22, 2022 05:14PM UTC

New Prediction

Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Tolga made their 1st forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

70%

Yes

Seems likely, but I'm not as certain as the crowd given the limited number of places.

Sep 22, 2022 05:05PM UTC

New Prediction

Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Tolga made their 1st forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

56%

Yes

@Pramila makes the case well for why hes fairly likely to be appointed, still seems uncertain.

Sep 22, 2022 05:02PM UTC

New Prediction

Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Tolga made their 1st forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

26%

Yes

I find @RyanBeck's reasoning useful, and the article linked by @harjanim

Sep 22, 2022 04:47PM UTC

New Prediction

How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022?

Tolga made their 1st forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

10%

39%

51%

4 or lower

Don't see reasons why we should expect the US goes from 3rd to 1st in one year. Probably the US will continue to fall in the rankings over the next 3 or so years, as some small countries will specialize more in industries that make heavy use of AI skills, while the US has a diverse range of industries.

Sep 22, 2022 04:26PM UTC