53rd
Accuracy Rank

Tolga

Tolga Bilge
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-0.0

Relative Brier Score

17

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 2 17 166 17 166
Comments 0 1 12 1 12
Questions Forecasted 2 17 31 17 31
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 1 9 1 9
 Definitions
New Prediction

Looks very unlikely, given the base rate.

Files
New Prediction

Looks unlikely judging from the last few years but the peace seems fragile.

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New Prediction

Looks like there were no reported deaths at the Brasilia riot
https://www.newsweek.com/brasilia-riots-brazil-lula-bolsonaro-election-donald-trump-capitol-riots-1772210

So it looks unlikely

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New Prediction
The military have said they'll hold elections by August, so they probably will, though they did go back on their last promise to hold elections.
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New Prediction
Tolga
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
93%
Less than 200
7%
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400
0%
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600
0%
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800
0%
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000
0%
More than or equal to 1000

Unlikely on this timeline and given the average rate.

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New Prediction

US leading with very little time remaining.

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New Prediction
Extremely little chance of this in the next month
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New Prediction

Looks very unlikely on this timeframe, haven't read about preparations being made.

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New Prediction
Tolga
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (+0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova
1% (-1%)
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia
0% (+0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova
99% (+1%)
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova

Moving lower with the passage of time and lack of recent escalations

Files
New Prediction

Moving down to 1% with the passage of time and lack of recent escalations. I don't think they would hit supply chains within NATO members. There is a risk of accidents and escalatory cycles that could lead to this.

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