Hat tip to @ctsats for the observation that the base rate data is unreliable:
https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/122911
Also noting @michal_dubrawski's observations: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/124467
We have 7 potentially habitable exoplanets added this year (it's unclear to me how many were from 2023), and 1 for 2024
Given the problems with the base rate data, I'm updating down, but only slightly since we already have one for this year.
Increasing probability of a war with recent events (Iran missile attacks on Israel).
Still think it's unlikely because I don't think Iran actually want a war, weird as it may sound to say as missiles are being shot from the sky.