BREAKING: our resolution source was just updated today (Mar 18), with 1 new exoplanet (for a total of 70): https://phl.upr.edu/hwc
Although they have obviously forgotten to mark the new one as "(N)", despite the note in the tables legend, the top of the page indicates that it is TOI-904 c in the optimistic sample. As I had argued below, the subject planet comes from the ones discovered in 2023 (October, see its publication page and the preprint link therein). The fact also implies that we will probably have page updates only when new exoplanets are added to the list, and not on a periodic (e.g. monthly) base...
[EDIT: please take the following para with a grain of salt, until we get the new updated raw data, which seem not to be available yet - see my comment below] It should be apparent by now that the base rate which many of us have calculated below (myself, @alter_hugo , @michal_dubrawski etc), and the probabilistic modelling based upon it (by @Tolga & myself) seems to be wrong: all three (3) planets added to our lists in 2024 so far were actually confirmed in 2023, not in 2024 (cc @jrl)... The data we have used to calculate the base rate include only the year the respective exoplanets were confirmed, not the year they were added to our lists (which is the actual year of interest here)...
I'll have to rethink further the implications of this; what seems clear by now is that we cannot calculate the actual base rate of interest (data regarding when each exoplanet was added to our lists seem not available)...
I think we should ask for clarification: does a habitable planet count as a 2023 or 2024 discovery if it is only listed in 2024, but was published in a paper in late 2023? What year was TOI-904c listed as in the raw data?
@jrl I may be wrong, but I don't think any clarification is actually possible (or useful): recall that two planets that were mentioned previously as "New in 2023" were actually added after Jan 8, 2024 (while confirmed indeed in 2023); while the latest one is "New in 2024" (added in March 18, 2024, and confirmed in Oct 2023).
From a certain point of view, the question is clear: how many exoplanets will be added to the resolution source between Feb 1 and Dec 31; the year of confirmation does not appear to be relevant. The question details already mention that, at the time the question opened, the total number was 69, so we are asked if that number will be at least 74 at the end of the year (it is 70 now).
What year was TOI-904c listed as in the raw data?
Good question. In the previous version of our raw data (i.e. the one we have been working with so far), TOI-904 c was not listed at all, and this is expected: since all exoplanets in the HWC raw data (habitable or not) include a parameter p_habitable, it takes some time for this parameter to be calculated for newly confirmed exoplanets, and this calculation for TOI-904 c (confirmed Oct 2023) had not been completed in time for the previous update (Feb 1), hence the planet was not included in our raw data back then.
So, the next question is - what year is TOI-904 c listed as in the new updated CSV file? Unfortunately, as of writing, the respective link in the HWC Data page leads to a "Page not found": https://www.hpcf.upr.edu/~abel/phl/hwc/data/hwc_table_all.csv , so we still don't know. I can only hope that this is due to the update still being only a few hours old, and that it will be remedied in the next hours...
If the new CSV file includes TOI-904 c under 2024, what I say above about the base rates calculated so far being wrong will not be completely true, but not completely incorrect either (since, as I say above, we now know that 2 planets were added between Jan 8 & Feb 1, 2024, but were nevertheless listed as of 2023 in the raw data).
BREAKING: our resolution source was just updated today (Mar 18), with 1 new exoplanet (for a total of 70): https://phl.upr.edu/hwc
Although they have obviously forgotten to mark the new one as "(N)", despite the note in the tables legend, the top of the page indicates that it is TOI-904 c in the optimistic sample. As I had argued below, the subject planet comes from the ones discovered in 2023 (October, see its publication page and the preprint link therein). The fact also implies that we will probably have page updates only when new exoplanets are added to the list, and not on a periodic (e.g. monthly) base...
[EDIT: please take the following para with a grain of salt, until we get the new updated raw data, which seem not to be available yet - see my comment below] It should be apparent by now that the base rate which many of us have calculated below (myself, @alter_hugo , @michal_dubrawski etc), and the probabilistic modelling based upon it (by @Tolga & myself) seems to be wrong: all three (3) planets added to our lists in 2024 so far were actually confirmed in 2023, not in 2024 (cc @jrl)... The data we have used to calculate the base rate include only the year the respective exoplanets were confirmed, not the year they were added to our lists (which is the actual year of interest here)...
I'll have to rethink further the implications of this; what seems clear by now is that we cannot calculate the actual base rate of interest (data regarding when each exoplanet was added to our lists seem not available)...
@jrl I may be wrong, but I don't think any clarification is actually possible (or useful): recall that two planets that were mentioned previously as "New in 2023" were actually added after Jan 8, 2024 (while confirmed indeed in 2023); while the latest one is "New in 2024" (added in March 18, 2024, and confirmed in Oct 2023).
From a certain point of view, the question is clear: how many exoplanets will be added to the resolution source between Feb 1 and Dec 31; the year of confirmation does not appear to be relevant. The question details already mention that, at the time the question opened, the total number was 69, so we are asked if that number will be at least 74 at the end of the year (it is 70 now).
Good question. In the previous version of our raw data (i.e. the one we have been working with so far), TOI-904 c was not listed at all, and this is expected: since all exoplanets in the HWC raw data (habitable or not) include a parameter p_habitable, it takes some time for this parameter to be calculated for newly confirmed exoplanets, and this calculation for TOI-904 c (confirmed Oct 2023) had not been completed in time for the previous update (Feb 1), hence the planet was not included in our raw data back then.
So, the next question is - what year is TOI-904 c listed as in the new updated CSV file? Unfortunately, as of writing, the respective link in the HWC Data page leads to a "Page not found": https://www.hpcf.upr.edu/~abel/phl/hwc/data/hwc_table_all.csv , so we still don't know. I can only hope that this is due to the update still being only a few hours old, and that it will be remedied in the next hours...
If the new CSV file includes TOI-904 c under 2024, what I say above about the base rates calculated so far being wrong will not be completely true, but not completely incorrect either (since, as I say above, we now know that 2 planets were added between Jan 8 & Feb 1, 2024, but were nevertheless listed as of 2023 in the raw data).