INFER Public

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 03:17PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 499	97%	99%	-2%	+5%
Between 500 and 999, inclusive	3%	1%	+2%	-5%
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 2000	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 03:41PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	90%	95%	-5%	+15%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	10%	4%	+6%	-13%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	-1%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	-1%
More than or equal to 200	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 03:43PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	4%	-3%	+0%
No	99%	96%	+3%	+0%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 03:45PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	13%	-5%	-2%
No	92%	87%	+5%	+2%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	64%	80%	-16%	+3%
No	36%	20%	+16%	-3%

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 09:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
2023 Q2	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q3	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q4	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2024 Q1	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
2024 Q2	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 09:15PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	8%	-1%	+0%
No	93%	92%	+1%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 09:16PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	4%	+8%	-2%
No	88%	96%	-8%	+2%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 09:37PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	11%	Mar 31, 2024 to Mar 31, 2025	Jun 30, 2024	6%	+5%	-1%
No	89%	Mar 31, 2024 to Mar 31, 2025	Jun 30, 2024	94%	-5%	+1%

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