37th
Accuracy Rank

rumi

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0.523335

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 4 7 38 22 60
Comments 1 1 1 1 1
Questions Forecasted 4 7 35 20 55
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 7 1 7
 Definitions
New Prediction
rumi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
76%
Moldova
75%
Armenia
78%
Georgia
8%
Kazakhstan

According to 30 May, Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia are caught in between Russia and the EU, building ties with the latter even as the former seeks to maintain influence there and deter the West.

So, there is highly chances. 





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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Israel severely restricted the amount of aid entering Gaza after October 7. Before the war, 500 truckloads of aid entered Gaza daily—with needs increased, a huge uplift in aid is required, but far less is actually arriving

Within the first six weeks of 2024, the Israeli military denied access to more than 50% of aid missions planned for north of Wadi Gaza and 25% for areas south of Wadi Gaza. Throughout April, an average of 186 trucks crossed into Gaza per day—about 37% of the pre-conflict aid delivery rates. The closure of the Rafah and Kerem Shalom Crossings is leading to severe shortages of fuel and threatening the continuity of humanitarian interventions.


So there is highly chances to be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days

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Why might you be wrong?

Israel severely restricted the amount of aid entering Gaza after October 7. Before the war, 500 truckloads of aid entered Gaza daily—with needs increased, a huge uplift in aid is required, but far less is actually arriving.


Within the first six weeks of 2024, the Israeli military denied access to more than 50% of aid missions planned for north of Wadi Gaza and 25% for areas south of Wadi Gaza. Throughout April, an average of 186 trucks crossed into Gaza per day—about 37% of the pre-conflict aid delivery rates. The closure of the Rafah and Kerem Shalom Crossings is leading to severe shortages of fuel and threatening the continuity of humanitarian interventions.

So there is the highly chances to be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Files
New Prediction
rumi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Jun 14, 2024 to Dec 14, 2024
99%
No
Jun 14, 2024 to Dec 14, 2024

In addition to Turkey and Azerbaijan, Israel has diplomatic relations with 5 non-Arab Muslim states in Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan).

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New Badge
rumi
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Iranian cyber actors continue to target the United States using a wide range of malicious cyber activity, from conducting ransomware attacks

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New Prediction
rumi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
May 30, 2024 to Nov 30, 2024
95%
No
May 30, 2024 to Nov 30, 2024

“Israel is planning for a long war with Iran and its proxies that could explode at any second and damage the whole region. Israel has no way to fight. 

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New Badge
rumi
earned a new badge:

Questions Forecasted

For forecasting on 50 questions!
New Prediction
rumi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
Yes
May 30, 2024 to Nov 30, 2024
88%
No
May 30, 2024 to Nov 30, 2024

On April 19, Israel carried out a strike deep inside Iranian territory, near the city of Isfahan. The attack was apparently in retaliation for a major Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel a few days earlier. This exchange between the two countries—which have historically avoided directly targeting each other’s territories—has raised fears of a potentially serious military escalation in the region.

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New Badge
rumi
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
rumi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
94%
Yes
6%
No

The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that the election will be held on 28 July (the day that would have been Hugo Chávez's 70th birthday),[3] with filing of candidacies set to run from 21 to 25 March[4] and campaigning to be held from 4 to 25 July.[5]


Venezuelan NGOs and political parties have denounced the use of disinformation, death threats, and physical attacks by Chavismo supporters and by the National Liberation Army (ELN), a far-left Colombian guerrilla group, on opposition candidates.

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