22nd
Accuracy Rank

rumi

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-0.146115

Relative Brier Score

15

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 4 31 15 53
Comments 0 0 0 0 0
Questions Forecasted 0 4 28 13 48
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 7 1 7
 Definitions
New Prediction
rumi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
Yes
Apr 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025
75%
No
Apr 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025

Limited war would involve regular Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah forces near the border and on the occasional Hezbollah commander, while Hezbollah would fire anti-tank missiles at military and civilian infrastructure across the border, allow Palestinian groups based in Lebanon to attempt the occasional cross-border.

Files
New Prediction
rumi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
47%
Estonia
44%
Latvia
42%
Lithuania

Russia is preparing for a military confrontation with the West within the next decade and could be deterred by a counter build-up of armed forces, Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service said on Tuesday.

A growing number of Western officials have warned of a military threat from Russia to countries along the eastern flank of NATO, calling for Europe to get prepared by rearming.

The chief of the intelligence service said the assessment was based on Russian plans to double the number of forces stationed along its border with NATO members Finland and the Baltic States of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.

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New Prediction

Russian missile strikes on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, have killed eight people and injured at least 10 others, regional officials said.


Ukraine’s national police said the attack was launched by drones, while regional officials said Russian forces used missiles and bombs. The police and local authorities published pictures of fires that had broken out on city streets and next to buildings

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New Badge
rumi
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
rumi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Apr 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025
95%
No
Apr 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025

In 2023, Israeli military intelligence had assessed President Ebrahim Raisi would succeed Khamenei. John Bolton argued the regime would be vulnerable in the event of Khamenei's death.

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New Badge
rumi
earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Mar 2024

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
rumi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
Yes
Feb 23, 2024 to Aug 23, 2024
91%
No
Feb 23, 2024 to Aug 23, 2024

The 2022–2024 Lebanese presidential election is an ongoing indirect election to elect the president of Lebanon following the expiration of term-limited.

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New Prediction
rumi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No

Myanmar's junta will likely hold elections in 2025, party officials told AFP yesterday, even as the military struggles to crush resistance to its rule.

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New Prediction
rumi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Feb 23, 2024 to Feb 23, 2025
98%
No
Feb 23, 2024 to Feb 23, 2025

Iran will not start a war but would "respond strongly" to anyone who tried to bully it, President Ebrahim Raisi said on Friday, a day after the U.S. said it was planning attacks on Iranian sites in Iraq and Syria.

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New Prediction
rumi
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Mar 23, 2024 04:18AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
Yes
Feb 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2024
92%
No
Feb 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2024

The Iraqi ambassador to Iran, Nasir Abdul Mohsen, is set to return to Tehran "within the next few hours" to resume his duties. 

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