Forecasted Questions
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 25, 2023 08:22AM UTC
(9 months ago)
Aug 25, 2023 08:22AM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 2% | +3% | -2% |
| No | 95% | 98% | -3% | +2% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2023 04:03PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Oct 30, 2023 04:03PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 4% | +2% | -4% |
| No | 94% | 96% | -2% | +4% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2024 04:27AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 31, 2024 04:27AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 10% | +0% | +4% |
| No | 90% | 90% | +0% | -4% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2024 04:33AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 31, 2024 04:33AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 33% | 11% | +22% | -21% |
| No | 67% | 89% | -22% | +21% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2024 04:38AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 31, 2024 04:38AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 4% | +2% | -3% |
| No | 94% | 96% | -2% | +3% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 23, 2024 04:20AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 23, 2024 04:20AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Feb 23, 2024 to Feb 23, 2025 | May 23, 2024 | 8% | -6% | +4% |
| No | 98% | Feb 23, 2024 to Feb 23, 2025 | May 23, 2024 | 92% | +6% | -4% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 23, 2024 04:22AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 23, 2024 04:22AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 4% | +46% | -4% |
| No | 50% | 96% | -46% | +4% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 23, 2024 04:26AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 23, 2024 04:26AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | Feb 23, 2024 to Aug 23, 2024 | May 23, 2024 | 7% | +2% | -2% |
| No | 91% | Feb 23, 2024 to Aug 23, 2024 | May 23, 2024 | 93% | -2% | +2% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 01:48PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Apr 24, 2024 01:48PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Apr 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025 | Jul 24, 2024 | 6% | -1% | -3% |
| No | 95% | Apr 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025 | Jul 24, 2024 | 94% | +1% | +3% |
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 01:50PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Apr 24, 2024 01:50PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49% | 2% | +47% | -2% |
| No | 51% | 98% | -47% | +2% |