tguanangui

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0.161637

Relative Brier Score

8

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 1 13 8 48
Comments 0 0 4 3 7
Questions Forecasted 0 1 7 6 23
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
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tguanangui
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
tguanangui
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30% (-5%)
Yes
May 31, 2024 to Nov 30, 2024
70% (+5%)
No
May 31, 2024 to Nov 30, 2024

There will not be an agreement.  Maybe countries against Israel will have to stop fights because internal problems like government's changes, financial difficulties, internal riots. Israel will stand firm against opposition.

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New Prediction
tguanangui
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on May 27, 2024 03:32AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
29%
Yes
Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024
71%
No
Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024
Why do you think you're right?

Israel has done militar attacks so his enemies have become weak.  Enemy forces could surrender.

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Why might you be wrong?

Other countries could support enemy forces.

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New Badge
tguanangui
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Wladimir putin has lost people's confidence

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Why might you be wrong?
He could make lobby to convince people to support him for next period
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tguanangui
earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Mar 2024

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction

War has decreased in intensity

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tguanangui
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

We are un Match.  Putin is still president. 

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Why might you be wrong?

Certain events can accelerate his exit.

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New Prediction

As Iran is fighting against Israel it is likely it faces cyberattacks.  They could not be too dangerous but they could make Iran be more attentive to its technological infrastructure

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