eiderdacosta

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0.011858

Relative Brier Score

12

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 3 16 12 31
Comments 0 0 0 0 0
Questions Forecasted 0 3 7 5 12
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Prediction

A probabilidade é baixa. Os últimos ataques russos a Kiev não produziram resultados significativos em termos de mortes ou feridos, tanto que o último ocorreu há 1 mês e feriu 10 pessoas em Kiev. Na verdade, nada indica que a actual tendência de ataques à capital ucraniana vá mudar, razão pela qual considero a probabilidade baixa.

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
eiderdacosta
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2024
99% (0%)
No
Apr 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
eiderdacosta
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (-98%)
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
99% (+98%)
No
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024

Não há perspectiva de utilização de mísseis contra Israel. Apesar da resposta enérgica do governo israelita ao Hamas, Israel está bem equipado com material nuclear, que pode ser um poderoso elemento de dissuasão contra ataques aéreos inimigos.

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New Prediction
eiderdacosta
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
99%
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
1%
No
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024

There is no prospect of using missiles against Israel. Despite the Israeli government's forceful response to Hamas, Israel is well equipped with nuclear material, which can be a powerful deterrent against enemy air attack.

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eiderdacosta
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Apr 27, 2024 11:05PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
99% (0%)
No
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
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