Confirmed previous forecast
0.011858
Relative Brier Score
12
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 31 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-98%)
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
99%
(+98%)
No
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
Não há perspectiva de utilização de mísseis contra Israel. Apesar da resposta enérgica do governo israelita ao Hamas, Israel está bem equipado com material nuclear, que pode ser um poderoso elemento de dissuasão contra ataques aéreos inimigos.
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
99%
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
1%
No
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
There is no prospect of using missiles against Israel. Despite the Israeli government's forceful response to Hamas, Israel is well equipped with nuclear material, which can be a powerful deterrent against enemy air attack.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 27, 2024 11:05PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Mar 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
A probabilidade é baixa. Os últimos ataques russos a Kiev não produziram resultados significativos em termos de mortes ou feridos, tanto que o último ocorreu há 1 mês e feriu 10 pessoas em Kiev. Na verdade, nada indica que a actual tendência de ataques à capital ucraniana vá mudar, razão pela qual considero a probabilidade baixa.