Forecasted Questions
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 25, 2021 08:03PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 25, 2021 08:03PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than -0.25 | 9% | 14% | -5% | +0% |
| Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 33% | 31% | +2% | +0% |
| More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 38% | 33% | +5% | +1% |
| More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 16% | 17% | -1% | +0% |
| More than 0.5 | 4% | 4% | +0% | +0% |
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 11, 2022 10:37PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 11, 2022 10:37PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 50% | 48% | +2% | +14% |
| Microsoft | 25% | 22% | +3% | +3% |
| Alphabet (Google) | 13% | 13% | +0% | -3% |
| Amazon | 7% | 10% | -3% | -6% |
| Tesla | 4% | 3% | +1% | -4% |
| Meta (Facebook) | 1% | 1% | +0% | -3% |
| Other | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 11, 2022 10:06PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 11, 2022 10:06PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 14% | 3% | 3% | +0% | -1% |
| Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 27% | 12% | +15% | -2% |
| More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 40% | 31% | +9% | -5% |
| More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 24% | 40% | -16% | +5% |
| More than 20% | 6% | 14% | -8% | +3% |
Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2022 10:45PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Oct 25, 2022 10:45PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intel | 10% | 16% | -6% | -5% |
| Samsung | 40% | 53% | -13% | -10% |
| TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) | 50% | 30% | +20% | +15% |
| Other | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |