INFER Public

When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?

Question Ends:
May 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 29, 2021 05:40PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Before February 17, 2021		Answer was incorrect
Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021		Answer was incorrect
After November 17, 2021		Answer was correct

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 26, 2021 03:30AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 08, 2021 01:24PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 08, 2021 01:25PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 14, 2021 03:24AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $470 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $680 billion		Answer was correct

How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 23, 2021 03:12AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $13 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $25 billion		Answer was correct

How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 23, 2021 03:12AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $40 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $100 billion		Answer was correct

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 23, 2021 06:41PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 26,000		Answer was correct
Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 32,000		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 02, 2021 05:09PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 14, 2021 06:30PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

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