Adjusting down given they probably want to focus on board for coming weeks
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 7, 2023 08:42PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
Yes
Nov 7, 2023 to Dec 7, 2023
3% seems a little low given new tactical pause discussion
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
In May, said "6% Altman is dishonest and they're currently training. 25% it gets released this year if this is the case.
20% his strategy changes in the next few months; 13% it actually gets released in time if so". Now reducing given that time has passed.
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Nearly end of year, and it looks like 4.5 might be on the cards rather than 5 as the next release