Forecasted Questions
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2021 05:02PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 29, 2021 05:02PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 28% | 35% | -7% | +1% |
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2021 02:04PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 01, 2021 02:04PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 14% | 0% | 3% | -3% | -3% |
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 3% | 12% | -9% | -6% |
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 41% | 31% | +10% | -3% |
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 43% | 40% | +3% | +9% |
More than 20% | 13% | 14% | -1% | +2% |
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 08, 2021 06:12AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 08, 2021 06:12AM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 08, 2021 06:12AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 08, 2021 06:12AM UTC
(2 years ago)