INFER Public

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 29, 2021 07:23PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 26,000		Answer was correct
Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 32,000		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 08, 2021 04:36PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 26, 2021 04:38PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 30, 2021 10:07AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 31, 2021 12:23PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 5.5%		Answer was incorrect
More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%		Answer was incorrect
Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 12%		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 02, 2021 07:00AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2021 09:47AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 25, 2021 09:08AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 31, 2021 10:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2021 02:48PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2021 02:48PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
0-10%		Answer was incorrect
10-20%		Answer was incorrect
20-30%		Answer was incorrect
30-40%		Answer was correct
40-50%		Answer was incorrect
50-60%		Answer was incorrect
60-70%		Answer was incorrect
70-80%		Answer was incorrect
80-90%		Answer was incorrect
90-100%		Answer was incorrect

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