Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?

Started Jul 27, 2021 11:07AM UTC
Closed Aug 31, 2021 10:59PM UTC

Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021 and the second half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11% for the first half of 2021 and 14% for the second half of 2021. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020

Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area.

Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming. If a shooting is claimed or reported to be made without lethal intent, e.g., a warning shot, it does not count. If intent is not reported, is disputed, or is reasonably ambiguous, it does count.

Chinese maritime security forces include the Coast Guard and Maritime Militia. The boundaries of the South China Sea are those established by the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), an international standards body. The Taiwan Strait is not a part of the South China Sea. 


This question is part of a forthcoming issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship.

To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 13.89%
No 86.11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 95
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 145
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Consensus Trend

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username