-0.500861
Relative Brier Score
140
Forecasts
34
Upvotes
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Active Forecaster
Ticking down as status quo persists
This feels like a tossup to me. If Israel goes into Rafah guns blazing, does that lower the probability here? Or does it increase it, since Netanyahu can declare "mission accomplished" and is then ready to talk?
The ceasefire plan being pushed forward now calls for an initial phase of 6 weeks, so if that held, this would resolve yes: https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-meet-jordans-king-who-wants-gaza-ceasefire-2024-02-12/
Why do you think you're right?
If Hezbollah wanted to get involved, I would think they would have done it at this point, so I'd guess there would need to be some other triggering event.
Why might you be wrong?
If Israel goes into Rafah and there are large numbers of civilian casualties, then Hezbollah could retaliate and cross some of these thresholds.