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Forecasts
0
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(+10%)
Intel
85%
(+85%)
Samsung
85%
(+85%)
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Intel
0%
Samsung
0%
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
Initial prediction
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-20%)
Yes, and the bill will be favorably reported to the full committee
1%
(0%)
Yes, but the bill will not be favorably reported to the full committee
79%
(+20%)
No, a vote will not occur
Updating for passage of time and the fact there are no signals from committee or members that this is a priority. Also there continue to be no republican co-sponsors. If there was a push I think there would be an attempt to at least get a few on board.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Could potentially be included as part of the American Innovation Act as an amendement. That act does look like it will be voted on.
Files
New Comment
leadership change in the phillipines (https://apnews.com/article/science-ferdinand-marcos-jr-manila-philippines-china-32e069df6968d6aece7334d0c9c633f8) but looks like more of the same in terms of sticking to diplomatic protestations
Rimpac is going on (https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/31/politics/rimpac-navy-exercises-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) but that also seems within the norm, despite protests.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes, for both manufacturing and design
40%
(0%)
Yes, for only manufacturing
0%
(0%)
Yes, for only design
30%
(0%)
No
Warner is still focusing on manufacturing and design in the lobbying (https://www.semiconductors.org/sen-mark-warner-semiconductor-industry-execs-meet-to-discuss-strengthening-domestic-chip-research-design-manufacturing/) but nothing about the press release suggests a compromise is imminent. I was originally going to decrease Yes -both and up just manufacturing but I think I'll stay for now given that they are still pushing for both.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
49%
Less than 10
38%
More than or equal to 10 but less than 15
10%
More than or equal to 15 but less than 20
3%
More than or equal to 20
Overall Base Rate Based on Data
<10% Never
10-15% : 20%
15-20%: 40%
More than 20%: 40%
Drop needed to get to <10% bucket (1 point): 50%
Maintain sq (<4% increase): 40%
Increase Needed to get to >15% (4%): 20%
Increase Needed to get to >20%: (9%): Never
And then there is the overall downward trend. With all that and not doing in research into Github or steps EU may have taken to increase this, I'm staring with
Less than 10%: 49%
10-15: 39%
15-20: 10%
>20: 2%
Files
Updating for time