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Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Definitions |
Active Forecaster
Active Forecaster
Initial prediction
Updating for passage of time and the fact there are no signals from committee or members that this is a priority. Also there continue to be no republican co-sponsors. If there was a push I think there would be an attempt to at least get a few on board.
Why might you be wrong?
Could potentially be included as part of the American Innovation Act as an amendement. That act does look like it will be voted on.
leadership change in the phillipines (https://apnews.com/article/science-ferdinand-marcos-jr-manila-philippines-china-32e069df6968d6aece7334d0c9c633f8) but looks like more of the same in terms of sticking to diplomatic protestations
Rimpac is going on (https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/31/politics/rimpac-navy-exercises-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) but that also seems within the norm, despite protests.
Active Forecaster
Warner is still focusing on manufacturing and design in the lobbying (https://www.semiconductors.org/sen-mark-warner-semiconductor-industry-execs-meet-to-discuss-strengthening-domestic-chip-research-design-manufacturing/) but nothing about the press release suggests a compromise is imminent. I was originally going to decrease Yes -both and up just manufacturing but I think I'll stay for now given that they are still pushing for both.
Overall Base Rate Based on Data
<10% Never
10-15% : 20%
15-20%: 40%
More than 20%: 40%
Drop needed to get to <10% bucket (1 point): 50%
Maintain sq (<4% increase): 40%
Increase Needed to get to >15% (4%): 20%
Increase Needed to get to >20%: (9%): Never
And then there is the overall downward trend. With all that and not doing in research into Github or steps EU may have taken to increase this, I'm staring with
Less than 10%: 49%
10-15: 39%
15-20: 10%
>20: 2%
Updating for time