Katvis

Stephen Scott
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Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 67
Comments 0 0 0 0 13
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 12
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I changed my mind, I don't think there is any probability of him stepping down. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Death.
If he dies, there will be a new president and my score will be hurt. 

However, he is fit, healthy and well protected, the probability of him dying before March - slim. 

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Katvis
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
14% (0%)
United States
61% (0%)
EU
10% (0%)
Japan
5% (0%)
Korea
10% (0%)
China
0% (0%)
None of the above
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Katvis
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
15% (0%)
Less than 10
28% (0%)
More than or equal to 10 but less than 15
57% (0%)
More than or equal to 15 but less than 20
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 20
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Katvis
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
8% (0%)
China
51% (0%)
EU
35% (0%)
United States
6% (0%)
India
0% (0%)
Other
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Katvis
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
17% (0%)
Less than 1,400
35% (0%)
More than or equal to 1,400 but less than 1,900
36% (0%)
More than or equal to 1,900 but less than 2,400
12% (0%)
More than or equal to 2,400
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Katvis
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Katvis
made their 8th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Aug 12, 2022 06:08AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Jul 12, 2022 to Jan 12, 2023

Confirming my forecast 

Files
Files
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