49th
Accuracy Rank

thsavage

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Oct 1, 2025 02:45PM Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025? -0.000109
    Oct 1, 2025 02:45PM How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025? 0.000748
    Oct 1, 2025 02:45PM How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025? -0.001157
    Oct 1, 2025 02:45PM How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? -0.004997
    Oct 1, 2025 02:45PM How many incidents of political violence will there be in Mexico in August 2025? -0.005932
    Oct 1, 2025 02:45PM Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025? -0.000077
    Oct 1, 2025 02:45PM According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025? -0.005398
    Oct 1, 2025 02:45PM By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea? -0.000742
    Oct 1, 2025 02:45PM According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025? -0.004
    Sep 6, 2025 12:56AM How many global victims of data-leaking ransomware will there be in August 2025, according to Data Breaches Digest? -0.006219
    Aug 12, 2025 03:00PM What will the U.S. annual inflation rate be in July 2025? -0.012159
    Aug 8, 2025 04:00PM Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres? -0.008363
    Aug 1, 2025 09:00PM Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025? 0.004243
    Aug 1, 2025 04:01AM Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? 0.003408
    Aug 1, 2025 04:01AM Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025? -0.000113
    Aug 1, 2025 04:01AM Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025? -0.001016
    Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.0
    Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 15, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) -0.010724
    Jul 24, 2025 04:00PM Will the share of battery-electric vehicles among new registered cars in the EU exceed 20% by the second quarter of 2025? -0.001703
    Jul 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.0
     
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