Staying where I am for now, there's long enough to go that I don't want to go higher on the last bin yet
-0.00824
Relative Brier Score
132
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 14 | 39 | 440 | 132 | 1232 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 80 |
| Questions Forecasted | 13 | 20 | 57 | 26 | 195 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 72 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
4%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
96%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Jul 27, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirming final forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirming final forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on May 24, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
(-3%)
Yes
Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024
89%
(+3%)
No
Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024
Decreasing because I'm a bit above the crowd
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on May 24, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 24, 2024 to May 24, 2024
92%
(0%)
No
Apr 24, 2024 to May 24, 2024
Confirming previous forecast, I don't see anything that would make me go higher
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on May 24, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(+4%)
Yes
Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024
95%
(-4%)
No
Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024
Updating based on the crowd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
54%
(-10%)
Yes
46%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Decreasing based on the aid bill that just got passed, ceasefire negotiations stalled, the Israel-Iran missiles from a week or so ago, & crowd forecast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The protests at US university campuses may move the needle, but that looks unlikely, especially in light of the aid package that the Senate approved today
Files
Holding steady, I'm right about where the crowd is