INFER Public

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 03:36PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	8%	-2%	-1%
No	94%	92%	+2%	+1%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 03:40PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	14%	Apr 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2024	May 17, 2024	16%	-2%	+3%
No	86%	Apr 17, 2024 to Oct 17, 2024	May 17, 2024	84%	+2%	-3%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 03:47PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	23%	Apr 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025	May 17, 2024	19%	+4%	-4%
No	77%	Apr 17, 2024 to Apr 17, 2025	May 17, 2024	81%	-4%	+4%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 17, 2024 03:49PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 749	0%	0%	+0%	-1%
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive	10%	5%	+5%	-6%
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive	90%	94%	-4%	+7%
More than or equal to 3000	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 04:07AM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	79%	80%	-1%	+1%
No	21%	20%	+1%	-1%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 02:02AM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	13%	-7%	-2%
No	94%	87%	+7%	+2%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 02:06AM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	54%	56%	-2%	+2%
No	46%	44%	+2%	-2%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 02:08AM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024	May 24, 2024	3%	+2%	-1%
No	95%	Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024	May 24, 2024	97%	-2%	+1%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 02:11AM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Apr 24, 2024 to May 24, 2024	May 24, 2024	6%	+2%	-1%
No	92%	Apr 24, 2024 to May 24, 2024	May 24, 2024	94%	-2%	+1%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 02:12AM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	11%	Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024	May 24, 2024	11%	+0%	+1%
No	89%	Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024	May 24, 2024	89%	+0%	-1%

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