Staying where I am for now, there's long enough to go that I don't want to go higher on the last bin yet
-0.565088
Relative Brier Score
464
Forecasts
32
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 20 | 422 | 132 | 1232 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 80 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 18 | 57 | 26 | 195 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 72 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Apr 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
4%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
96%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024
Sticking with the crowd forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
With just about a month to go, I'm going down to zero. I haven't seen anything that indicates this might happen, especially in the next month
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirming final forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirming final forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
(-3%)
Yes
Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024
89%
(+3%)
No
Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024
Decreasing because I'm a bit above the crowd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 24, 2024 to May 24, 2024
92%
(0%)
No
Apr 24, 2024 to May 24, 2024
Confirming previous forecast, I don't see anything that would make me go higher
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(+4%)
Yes
Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024
95%
(-4%)
No
Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024
Updating based on the crowd
Files
Holding steady, I'm right about where the crowd is