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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jul 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) -0.017162
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? -0.00003
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025? -0.000072
    Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025) -0.042275
    May 31, 2025 05:00PM On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? -0.084378
    Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025) 0.023733
    Jan 2, 2025 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 2, 2024 and Jan 2, 2025) -0.000019
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? -0.008767
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA? -0.000164
    Dec 28, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 28, 2024 and Dec 28, 2024) -0.0002
    Dec 2, 2024 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 2, 2024 and Dec 2, 2024) 0.0
    Nov 28, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2024 and Nov 28, 2024) -0.0002
    Nov 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2024 and Nov 6, 2024) 0.000213
    Nov 2, 2024 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 2, 2024 and Nov 2, 2024) 0.0
    Oct 28, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 28, 2024 and Oct 28, 2024) -0.0002
    Oct 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 6, 2024 and Oct 6, 2024) 0.0006
    Oct 2, 2024 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 2, 2024 and Oct 2, 2024) 0.0
    Sep 28, 2024 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 28, 2024 and Sep 28, 2024) -0.000045
    Sep 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 6, 2024 and Sep 6, 2024) 0.0006
    Sep 2, 2024 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 2, 2024 and Sep 2, 2024) 0.0
     
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