INFER Public

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 04, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
2023 Q2	0%	0%	+0%	0%
2023 Q3	0%	0%	+0%	0%
2023 Q4	0%	0%	+0%	0%
2024 Q1	1%	1%	+0%	0%
2024 Q2	1%	1%	+0%	0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 04, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	1%	1%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	96%	95%	+1%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 04, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	May 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2024	Jun 4, 2024	3%	+2%	+0%
No	95%	May 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2024	Jun 4, 2024	97%	-2%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 04, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	8%	-2%	+0%
No	94%	92%	+2%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 04, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	May 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2024	Aug 4, 2024	0%	+0%	0%

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 04, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	82%	-2%	0%
No	20%	18%	+2%	0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 04, 2024 03:50PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	May 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2024	Jun 4, 2024	3%	+1%	0%
No	96%	May 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2024	Jun 4, 2024	97%	-1%	0%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
31 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 04, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	5%	-4%	0%
No	99%	95%	+4%	0%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 04, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	May 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2024	Jun 4, 2024	6%	-1%	+0%
No	95%	May 4, 2024 to Jun 4, 2024	Jun 4, 2024	94%	+1%	+0%

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 04, 2024 03:52PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	May 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2024	Jun 4, 2024	17%	+8%	+1%
No	75%	May 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2024	Jun 4, 2024	83%	-8%	-1%

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