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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 1, 2023 12:15AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 1, 2023 to Feb 1, 2023
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 21, 2022 05:37PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Oct 21, 2022 to Nov 21, 2022
Low base rate. Also, I’d expect to see even greater escalation before a nuke
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 74
0%
(-2%)
Between 75 and 99, inclusive
100%
(+2%)
More than or equal to 100
Site updated
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 74
2%
Between 75 and 99, inclusive
98%
More than or equal to 100
deferring
Files
Over 100 now!
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Comment deleted on Jul 28, 2022 06:10PM UTC
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I'm just going off intuition.
Files
<0.5% of a nuclear test in four days