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Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
Why do you think you're right?
Russia has been fluctuating its domain over Ukraine's territory between 15-25%, it has been holding back, but hardly progressing much more than this. Especially because as far as it has been understood, the Kremlin aims to annex Donbas and maintain Crimea, thus Russia is not interested in 50%< of Ukraine's territory. Thus, it will stay more or less the same.
Why might you be wrong?
If the Russian military is not organised and doesn't have a clear strategic plan to maintain those territories, it may lose control of it. Also, again, if situations such as Wagner happen, that is, disagreements and mismanagement between the Russian government and its extensions (army, private groups, independent fighters etc) occur, they may lose more or less territory.
Why do you think you're right?
Unless there is a severe civil conflict that will force him out of control, he will still be the president of Russia.
Why might you be wrong?
If an unforeseen happens that causes a coup in Russia and forcefully takes him out of power, such as a civil war or internal conflict against an entity that has more military strength than the Russian army.
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
We are about to have elections on October, the country is very polarized, therefore, almost half of the population will be disatisfied with the results, thus probably resulting in riots and protests. Moreover, one of the candidates, Jair Bolsonaro, has been suggesting that elections can be manipuleted. Therefore, if he doesn't win, he will probably blame a manipulated system, thus, resulting in even more riots. Even before the elections, Bolsonaro's supporters have murdered and shot left-wing supporters.
Why might you be wrong?
If Bolsonaro wins, probably there will be less fatalities, since his supporters are the ones that kill the most