Forecasted Questions
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2023 11:20PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Oct 24, 2023 11:20PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 0% | 4% | -4% | -5% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 100% | 95% | +5% | +5% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 07, 2024 11:41PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 07, 2024 11:41PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Feb 7, 2024 to Feb 7, 2025 | May 7, 2024 | 14% | -14% | +9% |
No | 100% | Feb 7, 2024 to Feb 7, 2025 | May 7, 2024 | 86% | +14% | -9% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 11, 2024 09:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 11, 2024 09:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Apr 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025 | Jul 11, 2024 | 6% | -6% | -1% |
No | 100% | Apr 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025 | Jul 11, 2024 | 94% | +6% | +1% |
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 05:40PM UTC
(1 day ago)
May 03, 2024 05:40PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |