Javretro2000

About:
Show more
Forecasted Questions

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2023 11:20PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 4%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 95%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 07, 2024 11:41PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Feb 7, 2024 to Feb 7, 2025 May 7, 2024 14%
No 100% Feb 7, 2024 to Feb 7, 2025 May 7, 2024 86%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 11, 2024 09:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Apr 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025 Jul 11, 2024 6%
No 100% Apr 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025 Jul 11, 2024 94%

Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(27 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 05:40PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username