RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 2, 2025 09:28PM
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	100%	8%	+92%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Georgia	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 2, 2025 09:28PM
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	30%	+70%	+0%
No	0%	70%	-70%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 2, 2025 09:28PM
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	0%	9%	-9%	-1%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 2, 2025 09:28PM
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2026	Aug 2, 2025 09:28PM	3%	-3%	-1%
No	100%	Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2026	Aug 2, 2025 09:28PM	97%	+3%	+1%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 2, 2025 09:28PM
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2026	Aug 2, 2025 09:28PM	1%	-1%	-2%
No	100%	Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2026	Aug 2, 2025 09:28PM	99%	+1%	+2%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 2, 2025 09:28PM
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Latvia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	3%	-3%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 2, 2025 09:28PM
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2026	Aug 2, 2025 09:28PM	3%	+97%	+2%
No	0%	Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2026	Aug 2, 2025 09:28PM	97%	-97%	-2%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 2, 2025 09:28PM
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2026	Aug 2, 2025 09:28PM	7%	-7%	+2%
No	100%	Jul 2, 2025 to Jan 2, 2026	Aug 2, 2025 09:28PM	93%	+7%	-2%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 2, 2025 09:28PM
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
No	100%	98%	+2%	-1%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 2, 2025 09:28PM
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

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