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Javretro2000

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Forecasted Questions

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 1, 2025 05:18PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	100%	6%	+94%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Georgia	0%	4%	-4%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 1, 2025 05:18PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	23%	+77%	-3%
No	0%	77%	-77%	+3%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 1, 2025 05:53PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	6%	-6%	-2%
No	100%	94%	+6%	+2%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 1, 2025 04:24PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	0%	10%	-10%	-2%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 1, 2025 04:24PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026	Nov 1, 2025 04:24PM	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026	Nov 1, 2025 04:24PM	99%	+1%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 1, 2025 04:24PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026	Nov 1, 2025 04:24PM	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026	Nov 1, 2025 04:24PM	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 1, 2025 04:24PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Latvia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	3%	-3%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 1, 2025 04:24PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	100%	Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026	Nov 1, 2025 04:24PM	1%	+99%	+1%
No	0%	Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026	Nov 1, 2025 04:24PM	99%	-99%	-1%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 1, 2025 04:24PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026	Nov 1, 2025 04:24PM	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	Oct 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026	Nov 1, 2025 04:24PM	98%	+2%	+0%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 1, 2025 04:25PM
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%