Forecasted Questions
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
As of Nov 19, 2023 11:18PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2023 11:18PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Oct 19, 2023 11:18PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Oct 19, 2023 to Apr 19, 2024 | Nov 19, 2023 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
As of Feb 8, 2024 11:25PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 08, 2024 11:25PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 08, 2024 11:25PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Jan 8, 2024 to Jul 8, 2024 | Feb 8, 2024 | 3% | -3% | +0% |
No | 100% | Jan 8, 2024 to Jul 8, 2024 | Feb 8, 2024 | 97% | +3% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
As of May 7, 2024 11:41PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 07, 2024 11:41PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 07, 2024 11:41PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Feb 7, 2024 to Feb 7, 2025 | May 7, 2024 | 8% | -8% | +4% |
No | 100% | Feb 7, 2024 to Feb 7, 2025 | May 7, 2024 | 92% | +8% | -4% |