Liflock

Has shown strong growth recently and seems well-positioned to keep up the momentum. Few historical data points but I will assume continued linear growth. 

Has shown strong growth recently and seems well-positioned to keep up the momentum. Few historical data points but I will assume continued linear growth. 

Great considerations by several forecasters (@cassandra , @MullenAustin, @sulli365, @dvasya, @belikewater). I’m going to go mostly with the crowd on this one, adjusting slightly downwards based on @belikewater’s great observation that “the question resolution data are only obtained from NHGRI-funded sequencing centers” whose “equipment won't be upgraded overnight”.

First of all, using iGEM performance as a proxy for the strength of the future synbio workforce is interesting. But as mentioned in some of the references above, the iGEM Jamboree has hitherto been located in the US, which has probably favored participation of US teams. If US-team participation and performance will drop now that the Jamboree is in Paris, this will probably not reflect deterioration of synbio competence, but rather difficulties for US teams to find finances and time to participate and travel to Paris.

In the last eleven years, the US has won an award (Grand Prize or 1st Runner Up or 2nd Runner Up) twice, so I’m starting with a base rate of 18%. During this period, 30% of teams have been from the US, on average. Since 2011, however, the number of participating US teams has been steadily decreasing while the number of teams from other countries has been steadily increasing. In 2021 and 2022, the percentage of participating US teams was 15%, half of the average between 2011 and 2021. This halves the estimated chance of award from 18 to 9%.

The iGEM Jamboree moved from Boston to Paris in 2021. This will affect the ability of US teams to compete. It may disproportionately affect US teams compared to other countries’ teams because US teams have to find their own funding (Thousands of USD to register; additional costs for the Jamboree, travel and visa-related expenses). In other countries, iGEM teams are often sponsored by the state, their schools or by companies. This makes me adjust my estimate downwards, to 7%

The US has never won two awards at a single Jamboree, but I will apply a generous base rate to my first estimate and say there’s a 1% chance that they will do so this year.

The question asks when algae-based biofuels will next be positively mentioned; it doesn’t ask how well the development of algae-based biofuels is going. ExxonMobil seems to be using their partnership with Viridos a lot in their public-relations communications (regardless of whether or not this can be considered greenwashing). I therefore think ExxonMobil can choose throw in a statement of this partnership here and there to give the impression that they’re a climate friendly company, regardless of whether there’s been real progress. In fact, they mentioned Viridos in a tweet just two weeks ago. I therefore do not think ExxonMobil will cancel their partnership with Viridos and abandon their algae-based biofuels initiative, in contrast to Shell and Chevron. I think it’s likelier that they will mention algae-based biofuels soon, given that there seems to have been some recent success in scaling up oil content of these algae (though that success has apparently not been peer-reviewed and so it's unclear whether that's real). 

Biofuels consumption as a percentage of renewables has remained more or less static at ~20% in the last ~12 years, so that’s my base rate. Even though synthetic biology can generate large improvements in biofuels production in the future, that technology does not seem to be mature enough to have an impact within the next year. Biden’s new biofuels initiative of 2022 will likely increase biofuels production and use in the next year. Based on the rate of increased biofuels consumption in the years after the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, biofuels consumption will likely not increase by more than 30% from today’s value (-> 26%) within the next year. Other renewables, especially solar and wind, are currently increasing at least as fast as that (~30% per year), which will likely bring down the percentage of renewables made up of biofuels.