TimeRider

Updating as deadline nears.

Decreasing chances with the passage of time.

With continued attacks as well as an 18- mile wide oil slick disaster, there is no indication that either firm will reverse their decision to abandon routes through the Red Sea. The spill highlights the ongoing risks posed by oil-related activities in the region and underscores the need for preventive measures to protect this unique marine environment.

Experts expect it to be at least several months before possible returns, and that will depend on the geopolitical landscape.

I'm adjusting slightly due to a greater probability that it won't happen before the deadline. 

Widespread piracy: Piracy is rampant in China, and Microsoft has been criticized for not doing enough to protect its intellectual property. This could make it difficult to trust Chinese researchers with sensitive projects.

Specific projects: Some of Microsoft's research projects may be too sensitive to be conducted in China, even with additional security measures in place.

Political pressure: The US government could put pressure on Microsoft to shut down its China lab, especially if tensions between the two countries continue to escalate.