Unlikely to happen in next 11 days.
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
13
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 4 | 125 | 13 | 255 |
| Comments | 2 | 3 | 50 | 8 | 128 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 26 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 31 | 6 | 51 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
(-7%)
Yes
86%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
AI-generated spam is starting to fill social media.
https://www.npr.org/2024/05/14/1251072726/ai-spam-images-facebook-linkedin-threads-meta
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-9%)
Yes
99%
(+9%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The media industry seems to be moving in this direction, but it is clearly not going to happen in the next 18 days.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
TikTok has partnered with the Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity (C2PA) to start automatically labelling AI-generated content uploaded from other platforms.
https://www.medianama.com/2024/05/223-tiktok-collaboration-c2pa-labelling-ai-content/
This doesn't address the question, but shows progress towards C2PA adoption.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
21%
(-10%)
Yes
79%
(+10%)
No
Running out of time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
31%
(-3%)
Yes
69%
(+3%)
No
No movement
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
34%
(-7%)
Yes
66%
(+7%)
No
Lack of movement
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-5%)
Yes
90%
(+5%)
No
Lack of movement
Files
New Comment
New Hampshire House passes AI election rules after Biden deepfake
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/4563917-new-hampshire-house-passes-ai-election-rules-after-biden-deepfake/
FYI, doesn't affect the question but is more movement towards disclosure.
Files
Google Expands Synthetic Content Watermarking Tool to AI-Generated Text
https://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/google-synthid-ai-text/