Increased violence levels point to higher chance
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(+10%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Sudden spark in violence could lead to some sort of settlement
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Tigray peace likely to hold due to hard economic consequences if it doesn't. However, violence in Oromia likely to resume strongly now that the government has more military resources to use there.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Tigray peace may break, especially due to Eritrea's actions. Alternatively, Oromia violence may subdue without escalation
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
Making my first forecast!
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Economic deterioration is accelerating
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden IMF deal followed by donor intervention could stabilize the economy