EDacrema

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-0.207552

Relative Brier Score

4

Forecasts

0

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Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

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 Definitions

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Economic deterioration is accelerating 

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Why might you be wrong?

A sudden IMF deal followed by donor intervention could stabilize the economy  

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Increased violence levels point to higher chance 

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Why might you be wrong?

Sudden spark in violence could lead to some sort of settlement  

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Tigray peace likely to hold due to hard economic consequences if it doesn't. However, violence in Oromia likely to resume strongly now that the government has more military resources to use there. 

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Why might you be wrong?

Tigray peace may break, especially due to Eritrea's actions. Alternatively, Oromia violence may subdue without escalation 

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My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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EDacrema
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Making my first forecast!
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