Iran prefers to operate through Hezbollah and Hamas to avoid the chance of an Israeli counterattack on Iranian soil.
0.006915
Relative Brier Score
1
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
This forecast expired on Mar 3, 2024 08:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Dec 3, 2023 to Jun 3, 2024
98%
No
Dec 3, 2023 to Jun 3, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
The public and politicians are becoming increasingly concerned with the role of AI in potentially spreading misinformation or infringing upon individual property rights.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 22, 2023 10:51PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
Yes
Oct 22, 2023 to Nov 22, 2023
Israel is not pursuing a ceasefire but rather to eliminate or severely weaken Hamas. Hamas is completely comfortable using civilians as human shields. Neither side is highly motivated to pursue a ceasefire, and international actors are not adding pressure.
Files
The war is becoming increasingly politically unpopular domestically and abroad, causing Netanyahu to lose sway, and the IDF is realizing how difficult it is to achieve their aim of uprooting Hamas entirely from Gaza.