Confirmed previous forecast
-0.164044
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 50 | 11 | 55 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
71%
(0%)
Yes
29%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 1, 2024 04:27AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 1, 2024 to Aug 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 1, 2024 04:19AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Feb 1, 2024 to Aug 1, 2024
Because attacks could hapend at any time, like they being occurring by Missile attacks, bombing in Iran, Irak, Israel, Palestine, making the middle east a War Zone with no respect to Agreements between the countries envolved.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
71%
(0%)
Yes
29%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 1, 2024 03:33AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 1, 2024 to Aug 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
71%
(0%)
Yes
29%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 1, 2024 07:07AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 1, 2024 to Jul 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files