Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2023 11:13PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Sep 30, 2023 11:13PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 4% | +26% | -1% |
| No | 70% | 96% | -26% | +1% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2024 01:50AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 29, 2024 01:50AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 2% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 94% | 98% | -4% | +0% |
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 04:12AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 04:12AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 2% | +3% | 0% |
| No | 95% | 98% | -3% | 0% |