GuilhermeRenno

Since the beginning of his presidency, President Biden only addressed the Iranian nuclear issue once, in his first year, eager to reestablish Obama's deal in 2015. Since then, nothing concrete has been done, there is no policy, as the Foreign Affair mag states in an article from 03/26/24. 

Since the US, which has been the most vocal country at the P5+1 against Iran, is in silence and apart from the deal, the chances of snapback sanctions drop considerably.

Russia is too occupied with the Ukrainian war. China is "friendly", recently accepting Iran at the BRICS. Germany's Chancellor is too conservative on Public Affairs. The UK tends to follow the American foreign policy regarding Middle-Eastern issues. The most "inclined" to do such a move would be France, whose President recently scaled up the tone against Russia and has been trying to affirm the country as a larger player at the international arena. However, this is still a very remote chance. 

However, if Iran can enrich Uranium to over 90%, the scenario is different and it's way more likely that the UK, France, and Germany propose snapback sanctions and further retaliation. Unfortunately, this scenario is closer than previously imagined, since the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) has just concluded that Iran has reached "breakout time", meaning it would take just a few days to build a nuclear bomb with the technology they currently have. 

The deadline is way too short and Open AI has been facing major issues since November 2023 after Sam Altman's un-transparent dismissal, therefore, a rushed new launch of such an impactful product would not be a wise move for public opinion and business, because the security concerns would probably rise up. 

I believe there's a 70% chance of this scenario not materializing, primarily due to China's significant special interests and influence in the region.

Both Iran and Saudi Arabia have become part of the BRICS+ group and are currently engaged in discussions about abolishing visa requirements to promote tourism between the two nations. This development was previously inconceivable before China's diplomatic involvement. In light of these developments, MBS (Mohammad bin Salman) has already expressed that if Iran were to acquire a nuclear bomb, Saudi Arabia would feel compelled to follow suit.

The prospect of a nuclear arms race involving these two countries, as well as Israel, could have a profoundly detrimental effect on global oil prices. This is something China wishes to avoid, especially considering its ongoing economic challenges stemming from the diminishing interdependence among nations, exemplified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Consequently, the likelihood of either Iran or Saudi Arabia producing highly enriched uranium (90% or more) appears increasingly remote. There are numerous economic interests at stake, urging caution to prevent a major political upheaval in the region, and China has been diligently building its influence to mitigate such risks.