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Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
If it isn't a clear priority by 6/2023, it's not going to be enabled this year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Less than 4 million
50%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
N/A
Files
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
66%
Yes
34%
No
Seems like a low bar and may express confidence.
Files