23rd
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fionack

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Aug 12, 2025 03:00PM What will the U.S. annual inflation rate be in July 2025? -0.000595
    Aug 8, 2025 04:00PM Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres? 0.000296
    Aug 1, 2025 04:01AM Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? 0.0262
    Aug 1, 2025 04:01AM Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025? -0.000122
    Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.00002
    Jul 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) -0.013431
    Jul 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.002238
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? 0.000356
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? 0.000013
    Jun 25, 2025 02:00AM Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer? -0.00124
    Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025) -0.093542
    May 31, 2025 05:00PM On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? -0.049375
    Apr 28, 2025 01:00PM Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025? 0.061193
    Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024? 0.066874
    Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024? -0.005418
    Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025) -0.207533
    Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? 0.001134
    Jan 9, 2025 02:00PM Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2024 and Jan 9, 2025) -0.010268
    Jan 4, 2025 05:00PM Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025) -0.009387
    Jan 4, 2025 05:00PM Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025) 0.003019
     
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