Forecasted Questions
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2025 08:02PM
(4 months ago)
Mar 29, 2025 08:02PM
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | 3% | +2% | -3% |
No | 95% | 97% | -2% | +3% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2025 08:02PM
(4 months ago)
Mar 29, 2025 08:02PM
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +1% |
Latvia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
Lithuania | 1% | 3% | -2% | +1% |
Will the O-RAN Allianceβs specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2025 08:03PM
(4 months ago)
Mar 29, 2025 08:03PM
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications | 15% | 4% | +11% | -7% |
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP | 75% | 94% | -19% | +8% |
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP | 10% | 2% | +8% | -1% |
Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2025 08:03PM
(4 months ago)
Mar 29, 2025 08:03PM
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Angola | 3% | 2% | +1% | -3% |
Kenya | 3% | 2% | +1% | -2% |
Ethiopia | 25% | 7% | +18% | -17% |
Nigeria | 5% | 2% | +3% | -1% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2025 08:03PM
(4 months ago)
Mar 29, 2025 08:03PM
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 3% | 8% | -5% | +1% |
Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
Georgia | 5% | 5% | +0% | +1% |
Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2025 08:04PM
(4 months ago)
Mar 29, 2025 08:04PM
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 49 | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 7% | 3% | +4% | +0% |
Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 26% | 30% | -4% | -5% |
Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 51% | 57% | -6% | +4% |
More than or equal to 80 | 15% | 9% | +6% | +1% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2025 10:28PM
(4 months ago)
Mar 30, 2025 10:28PM
(4 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Togo | 15% | 9% | +6% | -2% |
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2025 10:41AM
(3 months ago)
Apr 28, 2025 10:41AM
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 0% | +2% | -1% |
No | 98% | 100% | -2% | +1% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2025 10:41AM
(3 months ago)
Apr 28, 2025 10:41AM
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 15% | 5% | +10% | -3% |
No | 85% | 95% | -10% | +3% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2025 05:46PM
(3 months ago)
May 12, 2025 05:46PM
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 8% | 7% | +1% | -1% |
No | 92% | 93% | -1% | +1% |