Forecasted Questions
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 29, 2024 04:53AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Feb 29, 2024 04:53AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 5% | 9% | -4% | +1% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 10% | 11% | -1% | -2% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 29, 2024 09:10AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Feb 29, 2024 09:10AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 79% | -9% | +5% |
| No | 30% | 21% | +9% | -5% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2024 09:57PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Mar 27, 2024 09:57PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Mar 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Jun 27, 2024 | 9% | -4% | +1% |
| No | 95% | Mar 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Jun 27, 2024 | 91% | +4% | -1% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 11:57PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Mar 31, 2024 11:57PM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 14% | -4% | -1% |
| No | 90% | 86% | +4% | +1% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 12:18AM UTC
(29 days ago)
Apr 01, 2024 12:18AM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 4% | +6% | -1% |
| No | 90% | 96% | -6% | +1% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 12:19AM UTC
(29 days ago)
Apr 01, 2024 12:19AM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Qatar | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 5% | 5% | +0% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 12:19AM UTC
(29 days ago)
Apr 01, 2024 12:19AM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +0% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 12:36AM UTC
(29 days ago)
Apr 01, 2024 12:36AM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Apr 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2024 | May 1, 2024 | 4% | -2% | +2% |
| No | 98% | Apr 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2024 | May 1, 2024 | 96% | +2% | -2% |
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 12:37AM UTC
(29 days ago)
Apr 01, 2024 12:37AM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 12:53AM UTC
(29 days ago)
Apr 01, 2024 12:53AM UTC
(29 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 97% | +2% | +0% |