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Forecasted Questions

    Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

    Forecast Count:
    3 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 29, 2025 08:02PM
    (4 months ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Yes 5% 3%
    No 95% 97%

    Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

    Forecast Count:
    6 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
    (1 year from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 29, 2025 08:02PM
    (4 months ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Estonia 1% 3%
    Latvia 1% 2%
    Lithuania 1% 3%

    Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

    Forecast Count:
    5 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
    (1 year from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 29, 2025 08:03PM
    (4 months ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications 15% 4%
    No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP 75% 94%
    No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP 10% 2%

    Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    4 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (2 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 29, 2025 08:03PM
    (4 months ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Angola 3% 2%
    Kenya 3% 2%
    Ethiopia 25% 7%
    Nigeria 5% 2%

    Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

    Forecast Count:
    7 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
    (1 year from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 29, 2025 08:03PM
    (4 months ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Moldova 3% 8%
    Armenia 1% 2%
    Georgia 5% 5%
    Kazakhstan 1% 2%

    What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

    Forecast Count:
    3 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (2 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 29, 2025 08:04PM
    (4 months ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Less than or equal to 49 1% 0%
    Between 50 and 59, inclusive 7% 3%
    Between 60 and 69, inclusive 26% 30%
    Between 70 and 79, inclusive 51% 57%
    More than or equal to 80 15% 9%

    Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

    Forecast Count:
    3 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Mar 30, 2025 10:28PM
    (4 months ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Togo 15% 9%
    Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations Answer was correct

    Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    6 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (2 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Apr 28, 2025 10:41AM
    (3 months ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Yes 2% 0%
    No 98% 100%

    Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

    Forecast Count:
    6 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
    (1 year from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Apr 28, 2025 10:41AM
    (3 months ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Yes 15% 5%
    No 85% 95%

    Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

    Forecast Count:
    3 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
    (4 years from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    May 12, 2025 05:46PM
    (3 months ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Yes 8% 7%
    No 92% 93%
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