Forecasted Questions
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2021 09:32PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 19, 2021 09:32PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 2% | 5% | 7% | -2% | -1% |
| Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 30% | 23% | +7% | -2% |
| More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 35% | 33% | +2% | -1% |
| More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 20% | 21% | -1% | +0% |
| More than 8% | 10% | 16% | -6% | +3% |
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 20, 2021 03:08AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 20, 2021 03:08AM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 20, 2021 03:14AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 20, 2021 03:14AM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2021 04:10PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 29, 2021 04:10PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 29, 2021 04:31PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 29, 2021 04:31PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than -0.25 | 10% | 14% | -4% | +0% |
| Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 30% | 31% | -1% | +0% |
| More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 40% | 33% | +7% | +1% |
| More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 15% | 17% | -2% | +0% |
| More than 0.5 | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 10, 2022 01:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 10, 2022 01:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 03, 2022 04:25PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 03, 2022 04:25PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 12, 2022 02:46PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 12, 2022 02:46PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 24, 2022 04:10PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 24, 2022 04:10PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 57% | 48% | +9% | +9% |
| Microsoft | 25% | 22% | +3% | +3% |
| Alphabet (Google) | 5% | 13% | -8% | -3% |
| Amazon | 10% | 10% | +0% | -5% |
| Tesla | 2% | 3% | -1% | -3% |
| Meta (Facebook) | 1% | 1% | +0% | -2% |
| Other | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 21, 2022 10:12PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 21, 2022 10:12PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 14% | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 5% | 12% | -7% | -1% |
| More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 13% | 31% | -18% | -2% |
| More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 55% | 40% | +15% | +3% |
| More than 20% | 26% | 14% | +12% | +1% |