Forecasted Questions
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 03:47AM UTC
(16 days ago)
May 01, 2024 03:47AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 96% | +3% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 03:52AM UTC
(16 days ago)
May 01, 2024 03:52AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 03:54AM UTC
(16 days ago)
May 01, 2024 03:54AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | -1% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(5 days ago)
May 12, 2024 09:36PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | May 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2024 | Jun 12, 2024 | 3% | -2% | +1% |
| No | 99% | May 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2024 | Jun 12, 2024 | 97% | +2% | -1% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 03:28AM UTC
(3 days ago)
May 14, 2024 03:28AM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 11% | -9% | -2% |
| No | 98% | 89% | +9% | +2% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 05:13PM UTC
(3 days ago)
May 14, 2024 05:13PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 55% | 55% | +0% | -8% |
| Kyiv | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Odesa | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |