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29th
Accuracy Rank
fionack
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Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India?
0.000693
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces?
0.000468
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?
-0.012856
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?
0.134441
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?
0.070823
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
0.003087
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?
-0.008967
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023?
0.036433
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?
0.014319
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?
0.628629
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?
0.040048
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC
What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?
0.054631
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC
Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)
-0.188566
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?
0.075967
Nov 11, 2023 05:00AM UTC
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Ethiopia?
0.048947
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
0.046648
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?
-0.03149
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM UTC
Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?
-0.037747
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?
-0.036969
Sep 05, 2023 08:34AM UTC
Will the Pheu Thai Party be part of a governing coalition in Thailand after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024?
0.022659
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