Forecasted Questions
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 29, 2021 04:47PM UTC
(3 years ago)
May 29, 2021 04:47PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 2% | 5% | 7% | -2% | +0% |
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 23% | 23% | +0% | -2% |
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 33% | 33% | +0% | -2% |
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 18% | 21% | -3% | +0% |
More than 8% | 21% | 16% | +5% | +4% |
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 20, 2021 05:03AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 20, 2021 05:03AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 45% | 35% | +10% | -5% |
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 04, 2021 03:56AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 04, 2021 03:56AM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2021 02:03AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 19, 2021 02:03AM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2021 03:35PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 25, 2021 03:35PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2021 04:18PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 30, 2021 04:18PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than -0.25 | 3% | 14% | -11% | -1% |
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 28% | 31% | -3% | -1% |
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 46% | 33% | +13% | +2% |
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 20% | 17% | +3% | +0% |
More than 0.5 | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |
How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 30, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2021 05:08PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 30, 2021 05:08PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2021 05:12PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 30, 2021 05:12PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2021 05:21PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 30, 2021 05:21PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 14% | 4% | 3% | +1% | -3% |
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 32% | 12% | +20% | -7% |
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 44% | 31% | +13% | -2% |
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 15% | 40% | -25% | +10% |
More than 20% | 5% | 14% | -9% | +2% |