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Forecasted Questions

[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2021 06:24PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 35%

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2021 06:45PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 2% 0% 7%
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive 60% 23%
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% 40% 33%
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% 0% 21%
More than 8% 0% 16%

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2021 11:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2021 02:03AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2021 02:31AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2021 02:33AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2021 06:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2021 07:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 14% 0% 3%
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive 0% 12%
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% 28% 31%
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% 72% 40%
More than 20% 0% 14%

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2021 08:45PM UTC
(2 years ago)

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2021 09:31PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than -0.25 0% 14%
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive 10% 31%
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 80% 33%
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 10% 17%
More than 0.5 0% 4%
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